It seems strange writing up an NHL Playoff Report in July, but I might only get to do it once more, after Tampa Bay soundly defeated Montreal 6-3 in last night’s Stanley Cup Final game.  The victory gives Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead in the series, and we’ve calculated that they’ve now got a 96.7% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup (that sounds kind of bad!).

Tampa Bay put the pressure on early, jumping out to a 2-0 lead after three minutes and 27 seconds.  Montreal closed within one halfway through the period, and there was no more scoring in the first frame.  Once again in the second, Tampa Bay came out strong, scoring twice more in the first three and a half minutes to grab a 4-1 lead.  Montreal scored with two minutes left in the second to make it 4-2, and that’s how the period ended.  In the third, it was a tighter game, with Tampa Bay scoring with 4:41 left to make it 5-2, and Montreal scored 39 seconds later to make the game a little more interesting.  But, with the Montreal goalie pulled, Tampa Bay finished off the scoring with 3:12 left.

In an interesting side note, thanks to COVID, Victor Hedman of Tampa Bay becomes the first NHL player to have scored a goal in all twelve months of the calendar!

The teams have the weekend off, with the series resuming on Monday in Montreal.  With a victory, Tampa Bay can become the second back-to-back winner of the Stanley Cup this century (Pittsburgh is the other, having won it in both 2016 and 2017).  Despite the game being in Montreal, we’re giving Tampa Bay a 55% chance of the sweep.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-0
• Tampa Bay now has an 96.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 87.0%

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 96.7% chance of winning (▲9.7)
  • In 4 games: 55.0% (▲25.8)
  • In 5 games: 28.8% (▼1.7)
  • In 6 games: 8.1% (▼7.4)
  • In 7 games: 4.8% (▼6.9)
• Montreal has a 3.3% chance of winning (▼9.7)
  • In 7 games: 3.3% (▼4.8)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay at Montreal

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-0
• Tampa Bay has an 96.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 97%, Montreal 3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1581
• Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 96.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 55.0%
  • In 5 games: 28.8%
  • In 6 games: 8.1%
  • In 7 games: 4.8%
• Montreal has a 3.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 3.3%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%