It’s been an interesting week at both the top and the bottom of the rankings. Colorado has retained top spot in the rankings, but haven’t played since April 14th, as some of their players have entered the COVID protocol. They’ve had three games postponed, and they expect to play their next game on April 22nd. There’s lots of competition for the top 5 rankings, as the third- through ninth-ranked teams are only 11 rating points apart! Meanwhile, at the bottom end, Buffalo has managed to crawl out of last place in our rankings, all the way up to 29th(!), but are the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention.
Colorado is the top team in our rankings, for the third week in a row. They went 2-0-0, with wins against 17th-ranked Arizona and 20th-ranked St. Louis before entering the COVID protocol. They gained 10 rating points, and extended their lead in the ratings. But, it will be interesting to see if their layoff helps or hurts them. They have two games this week against St. Louis (a third game against them is postponed), so we’ll want to keep an eye on that.
Vegas had a big week, going 4-0-0 and jumping from 6th to 2nd place in our rankings. They also picked up 23 rating points! Although all four of their games were wins in regulation time, they were against 24th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim. And they’ve got an easy week coming up again, with two games against 25th-ranked San Jose and one more against Anaheim. They’re in a tough division, with 3 teams in our top 5 (Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota), so we’ll see how they do when they play better teams.
Washington retained 3rd spot in our rankings, despite going 2-2-0 this week. They split a pair with 19th-ranked Philadelphia, lost to lowly Buffalo, and closed off the week with a loss to 5th-ranked Boston. They lost 6 rating points, but still stayed 3rd in the rankings.
Minnesota jumped 4 spots to take 4th place in our rankings. They went 3-0-0, and picked up 15 rating points. They beat 17th-ranked Arizona, then beat 25th-ranked San Jose twice. They’ve got two more games coming up against Arizona, then single games against Los Angeles and San Jose. It’s interesting that the top 3 West Division teams don’t play each other at all this week!
Rounding out the top 5 is Boston. They went 4-0-0, with a shootout win against Buffalo, followed by two wins against the 14th-ranked Islanders and one against 3rd-ranked Washington. They jumped 6 spots in our rankings, and hope to improve further with three straight games against Buffalo, followed by a game against 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.
Other big positive movers this week were the New York Rangers and Buffalo. The Rangers went 4-0-0 and gained 23 rating points to move to 10th in the rankings. They saw their chance of making the playoffs improve from 14% to 20%, but it may be too late for them. Buffalo went 2-1-1 and gained 18 rating points, with a shootout loss to Boston, a win against Washington, and a split with Pittsburgh. However, as mentioned previously, they have been eliminated from playoff contention.
There were also some big negative movers. San Jose lost 29 rating points, going 0-4-0, with two losses to last-ranked Anaheim and two losses to 4th-ranked Minnesota. New Jersey lost 23 rating points, going 0-4-0, with all four games coming against the Rangers. And Toronto, despite being the most likely team to win the North Division (59%), lost 21 rating points after going 0-2-2. They are in first place in the North Division standings, but are currently only the third-best team in that division, behind 7th-ranked Edmonton and 11th-ranked Winnipeg.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1614, ▲10)
Record: 30-9-4, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 58% (▲20)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 20% (▲3)
Last week: 2-0-0
- April 12: Won 4-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
- April 14: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
- April 16: Postponed vs. Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
- April 18: Postponed vs. Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
Next week:
- April 20: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
- April 22: @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
- April 24: @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1577, ▲23)
Record: 31-11-2, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 27% (▲18)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- April 12: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
- April 14: Won 6-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
- April 16: Won 4-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)
- April 18: Won 5-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)
Next week:
- April 19: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
- April 21: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
- April 24: @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)
3. Washington Capitals (1560, ▼6)
Record: 29-13-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 2-2-0
- April 13: Won 6-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (19th, 1480)
- April 15: Lost 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
- April 17: Won 6-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (19th, 1480)
- April 18: Lost 6-3 @ Boston Bruins (5th, 1556)
Next week:
- April 22: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
- April 24: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
4. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1558, ▲15)
Record: 27-13-3, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 14: Won 5-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
- April 16: Won 3-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
- April 17: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
Next week:
- April 19: @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
- April 21: @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
- April 23: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
- April 24: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
5. Boston Bruins ▲6 (1556, ▲17)
Record: 25-12-6, 4th in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- April 13: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
- April 15: Won 4-1 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
- April 16: Won 3-0 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
- April 18: Won 6-3 vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1560)
Next week:
- April 20: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
- April 22: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
- April 23: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
- April 25: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1550)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1614 (▲10) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▲4) 1577 (▲23) 3 Washington Capitals 1560 (▼6) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲4) 1558 (▲15) 5 Boston Bruins (▲6) 1556 (▲17) 6 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1554 (▲1) 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1550 (▲8) 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 1550 (▼6) 9 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼7) 1549 (▼19) 10 New York Rangers (▲4) 1541 (▲23) 11 Winnipeg Jets 1537 (▼2) 12 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7) 1534 (▼21) 13 Florida Panthers 1532 (▲11) 14 New York Islanders (▼4) 1527 (▼13) 15 Dallas Stars 1514 (▲11) 16 Nashville Predators 1486 (▼4) 17 Arizona Coyotes (▲3) 1484 (▼2) 18 Montreal Canadiens 1483 (▼5) 19 Philadelphia Flyers (▼3) 1480 (▼10) 20 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1474 (▼13) 21 Calgary Flames (▲3) 1470 (▲6) 22 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1468 (▲2) 23 Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 1463 (▲1) 24 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1457 (▼13) 25 San Jose Sharks (▼3) 1440 (▼29) 26 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1439 (▼12) 27 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1435 (▲10) 28 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1431 (▼23) 29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1424 (▲18) 29 (tie) Ottawa Senators 1424 (▲13) 31 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1416 (▲9)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 55% (▲9) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 26% (▼20) 3 Florida Panthers 18% (▲11) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 40% (▼3) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 24% (▼2) 3 New York Islanders (▼1) 20% (▼7) 4 Boston Bruins 16% (▲12) 5 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2) — 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2) —
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 65% (▼8) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 33% (▲9) 3 Minnesota Wild 2% (▼1) 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 8 Anaheim Ducks (▼4) —
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 59% (▼19) 2 Winnipeg Jets 23% (▲6) 3 Edmonton Oilers 18% (▲14) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 7 Ottawa Senators (▼3) —
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 40% (▲13) 5 Nashville Predators (▼1) 38% (▼15) 6 Chicago Blackhawks 22% (▲2) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 98% (▼1) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 97% (▼2) 3 New York Islanders (▼2) 94% (▼5) 4 Boston Bruins 91% (▲7) 5 New York Rangers 20% (▲6) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% (▼6) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) —
West Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights >99% 4 Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 47% (▲17) 5 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 38% (▼5) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 12% 7 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 3% (▼12) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1%
North Division
1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets >99% 3 Edmonton Oilers 99% 4 Montreal Canadiens 77% (▼7) 5 Vancouver Canucks 13% (▲4) 6 Calgary Flames 10% (▲2) 7 Ottawa Senators <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 58% (▲20) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 27% (▲18) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 10% (▼5) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 2% (▼12) 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3) 1% 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6) 1% (▲1) 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3) 1% (▼14)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 20% (▲3) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▲4) 10% (▲3) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 8% 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 7% (▼3) 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 7% (▼2) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲6) 6% (▲2) 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 6% (▼1) 10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 5% (▲1) 10 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6) 5% (▼3) 10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 5% 13 New York Islanders (▼5) 3% (▼2) 14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 1% 14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1% 14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 1% (▼1) 14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 1% 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4) <1% (▼1) 19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 31 Buffalo Sabres (▼11) —