It’s been another interesting week in the NHL. Lots of exciting games, some weak teams beating some better teams, and no games from Vancouver due to COVID. Because of Vancouver’s COVID troubles, the season has been extended again, now to May 16th, with the Canucks playing the last 3 games on the schedule.
Colorado remains in top spot in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They are the first team this year to rise above the 1600 rating mark, gaining 9 points to 1604. They went 3-1-0, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Minnesota, then beating 30th-ranked Anaheim twice. They are also the favourite to win the President’s Trophy, which we’re giving them a 38% chance of doing, and the Stanley Cup, at 17%. With games next week against St. Louis, Arizona, and Los Angeles (19th, 20th, and 21st!), we expect to see them improve their rating even higher.
Tampa Bay and Washington exchanged spots this week, with Tampa Bay now at number 2 and Washington at 3. Tampa Bay started the week with a loss to 27th-ranked Columbus, but turned around 2 nights later to beat them, then ended the week with a shutout win over 16th-ranked Nashville. Washington didn’t have such a good week, going 2-2-0, losing to the Islanders (10th) and Boston (11th), squeaking by the league-worst Sabres 4-3, and finishing the week with a strong 8-1 drubbing of Boston.
Pittsburgh has come out of nowhere to move into the top 5 for the first time this season. They moved up 4 ranking spots last week, and now sit in 4th. They had a 3-1-0 record last week, splitting a pair with the 14th-ranked Rangers, then beating 26th-ranked New Jersey twice. They look to have an easy week next week, playing fading 16th-ranked Philadelphia once and lowly Buffalo twice.
Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who return to the top 5 with a big jump from 12th last week. They went 3-0-0, beating Calgary, Montreal, and Ottawa. They have been looking strong in the games I’ve watched.
The biggest jump in ratings this week was 11th-ranked Winnipeg, picking up 21 rating points with a win against Ottawa and two against Montreal. They start next week with two games against 29th-ranked Ottawa, but then face a tough test with games against Toronto and 9th-ranked Edmonton.
The biggest drop in the ratings came from Montreal, losing 22 rating points and dropping to 18th in the rankings. However, we do still give them an 84% chance of making the playoffs! They went 1-3-0 this week, beating Edmonton in overtime, but then losing to Toronto once and Winnipeg twice.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1604, ▲9)
Record: 28-9-4, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- April 5: Won 5-4 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
- April 7: Lost 8-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
- April 9: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)
- April 11: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)
Next week:
- April 12: vs. Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1486)
- April 14: @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1487)
- April 16: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)
- April 18: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1568, ▲4)
Record: 28-11-2, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- April 6: Lost 4-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
- April 8: Won 6-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
- April 10: Won 3-0 @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)
Next week:
- April 13: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)
- April 15: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)
- April 17: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)
3. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1566, ▼3)
Record: 27-11-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 2-2-0
- April 6: Lost 1-0 @ New York Islanders (10th, 1540)
- April 8: Lost 4-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
- April 9: Won 4-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
- April 11: Won 8-1 @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
Next week:
- April 13: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
- April 15: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
- April 17: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
- April 18: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲4 (1556, ▲14)
Record: 27-13-2, 3rd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-1-0
- April 6: Lost 8-4 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
- April 8: Won 5-2 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
- April 9: Won 6-4 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)
- April 11: Won 5-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)
Next week:
- April 15: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
- April 17: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
- April 18: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲7 (1555, ▲17)
Record: 28-10-3, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲9)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 5: Won 5-3 @ Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
- April 7: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
- April 10: Won 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (29th, 1411)
Next week:
- April 12: @ Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
- April 13: vs. Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
- April 15: vs. Winnipeg Jets (11th, 1539)
- April 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1462)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1604 (▲9) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1568 (▲4) 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1566 (▼3) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4) 1556 (▲14) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲7) 1555 (▲17) 6 Vegas Golden Knights 1554 (▲10) 7 Carolina Hurricanes 1553 (▲10) 8 Minnesota Wild (▼4) 1543 (▼7) 9 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1542 (▲3) 10 New York Islanders (▼5) 1540 (▼5) 11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 1539 (▼1) 11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1539 (▲21) 13 Florida Panthers (▼4) 1521 (▼20) 14 New York Rangers (▲1) 1518 (▲9) 15 Dallas Stars (▲3) 1503 (▲9) 16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3) 1490 (▼1) 16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1490 (▼5) 18 Montreal Canadiens (▼4) 1488 (▼22) 19 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 1487 (▲9) 20 Arizona Coyotes (▼4) 1486 (▼11) 21 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1470 (▲2) 22 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 1469 (▼12) 23 Chicago Blackhawks (▲3) 1466 (▲7) 24 Calgary Flames 1464 (▲2) 25 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1462 26 New Jersey Devils (▼4) 1454 (▼16) 27 Columbus Blue Jackets 1451 (▼5) 28 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1425 (▼4) 29 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1411 (▼21) 30 Anaheim Ducks 1407 (▲1) 31 Buffalo Sabres 1406 (▲9)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 46% (▲15) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 46% (▲7) 3 Florida Panthers 7% (▼23) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 43% (▼10) 2 New York Islanders 27% (▲3) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 26% (▲11) 4 Boston Bruins 4% (▼4) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 73% (▲8) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 24% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild 3% (▼11) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 78% (▲11) 2 Winnipeg Jets 17% (▲4) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 4% (▼9) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% (▼8) 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 4 Nashville Predators 53% (▲5) 5 Dallas Stars 27% (▼1) 6 Chicago Blackhawks 20% 7 Columbus Blue Jackets 1% (▼2) 8 Detroit Red Wings <1%
East Division
1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 99% (▲3) 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 99% (▲4) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals 99% 4 Boston Bruins 84% 5 New York Rangers 14% (▲1) 6 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 6% (▼7) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% (▼1)
West Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) >99% (▲1) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 99% 4 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 43% (▲25) 5 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 30% (▼16) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 15% (▼10) 7 Los Angeles Kings 12% (▼1) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1%
North Division
1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) >99% (▲2) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 99% (▲1) 4 Montreal Canadiens 84% (▼8) 5 Vancouver Canucks 9% (▲2) 6 Calgary Flames 8% (▲3) 7 Ottawa Senators <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 38% (▲7) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 15% (▲3) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5) 15% (▲9) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 14% (▼1) 5 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 9% (▲2) 6 Washington Capitals (▼2) 4% (▼6) 7 New York Islanders (▲2) 2% (▼1) 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4) 1% (▼9) 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1% 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 17% (▲1) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 10% (▲1) 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 9% (▼1) 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 8% (▲2) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▲2) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5) 7% (▲2) 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 7% (▲1) 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4) 5% (▼1) 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4) 5% (▼1) 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4) 5% (▼1) 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5) 5% (▲1) 12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 4% (▼1) 12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼8) 4% (▼2) 14 Montreal Canadiens 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 1% 15 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 15 (tie) New York Rangers 1% 15 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲6) 1% (▲1) 20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5) <1% (▼1) 20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼5) <1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1%