We have a new team at the top of the rankings this week. Colorado has taken over top spot from Washington, rising 19 rating points to 1595. They have quite the lead over Washington now, as the Capitals dropped 9 points down to 1569. Tampa Bay and Minnesota remain in the top 5, while Vegas has dropped to sixth, and have been replaced in the top 5 by the New York Islanders.
Colorado had a big week, going 4-0-0. They beat 30th-ranked Anaheim, 16th-ranked Arizona (9-3!), and 21st-ranked St. Louis twice.
Washington had an average week, going 2-2-0. They started the week with two losses in New York, first to the 15th-ranked Rangers, then to the 5th-ranked Islanders, giving up 8 goals. They finished the week with two wins over New Jersey, the first one in overtime.
Tampa Bay had a very easy schedule, but only managed a 2-2-0 record. They split a pair with 27th-ranked Columbus, then also split a pair with 29th-ranked Detroit.
Minnesota went 2-1-1. They started the week losing twice to 20th-ranked San Jose, once in a shootout. But then, they turned it around by beating 6th-ranked Vegas twice, with one of those wins also coming in a shootout.
Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Islanders, who went 2-1-0, with a loss to 8th-ranked Pittsburgh, a win against Washington, and a shootout win against 17th-ranked Philadelphia.
San Jose had the best week this week, picking up 27 rating points and moving up from 27th to 20th place in the rankings. They went 4-0-0, beating 4th-ranked Minnesota twice, with one of those wins coming in a shootout, then beating 23rd-ranked Los Angeles twice.
The playoff teams seem to be firming up. Looking at the chances of making the playoffs (or not), if a team has greater than a 99% chance, I consider them a sure thing, as they’ve got less than a 1 in 100 chance of not making the playoffs. If a team has a greater than 90% chance, I consider it pretty likely, although there is still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making the playoffs. And if a team has less than a 1% chance, I don’t see much chance that they can turn it around and make the playoffs, although there is still a slim chance. Let’s look at each of the divisions.
In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are all considered shoe-ins. There are still 3 other teams that have a reasonable chance of grabbing the last playoff spot, with Nashville most likely at 48%, Dallas at 28%, and Chicago at 9%. And it looks like a three-way race for the top spot, with Tampa Bay favoured at 39%, but Carolina (31%) and Florida (30%) have almost as good a shot at it.
In the East Division, nobody is a sure thing, although Washington (99%), New York Islanders (96%), and Pittsburgh (95%) are pretty likely. Boston is expected to get the fourth spot with an 84% chance, but the Rangers and Philadelphia (both at 13%) can’t be counted out yet. Washington has a 53% chance of winning the division.
In the West Division, Colorado (>99%), Minnesota (99%), and Vegas (also 99%) look to take the top 3 spots. But it’s close after that. Arizona has a 46% chance of making the playoffs, followed by San Jose at 25%, St. Louis at 18%, and Los Angeles at 13%. Only Anaheim is being counted out in that division.
In the North Division, it looks like the playoff teams have been mostly decided. Toronto is a sure thing, whereas Edmonton (98%), Winnipeg (also 98%), and Montreal (92%) are pretty sure of making the playoffs. Having an outside shot are still Vancouver at 7% and Calgary at 5%. Vancouver’s got no chance. And we’re giving Toronto a 67% chance of winning the division.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche ▲2 (1595, ▲19)
Record: 25-8-4, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▲22)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲5)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 29: Won 5-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
- March 31: Won 9-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1497)
- April 2: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
- April 3: Won 2-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
Next week:
- April 5: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
- April 7: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
- April 9: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
- April 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
2. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1569, ▼9)
Record: 25-9-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)
Last week: 2-2-0
- March 30: Lost 5-2 @ New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
- April 1: Lost 8-4 @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
- April 2: Won in OT 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)
- April 4: Won 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)
Next week:
- April 6: @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
- April 8: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)
- April 9: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1397)
- April 11: @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1564, ▼13)
Record: 26-10-2, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▼13)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼3)
Last week: 2-2-0
- March 30: Lost 3-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
- April 1: Won 3-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
- April 3: Won 2-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)
- April 4: Lost 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)
Next week:
- April 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
- April 8: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
- April 10: @ Nashville Predators (19th, 1491)
4. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1550)
Record: 23-11-2, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 29: Lost in SO 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
- March 31: Lost 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
- April 1: Won in SO 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)
- April 3: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)
Next week:
- April 5: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
- April 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
- April 9: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
- April 10: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
5. New York Islanders ▲1 (1545, ▼2)
Record: 24-10-4, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 29: Lost 2-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1542)
- April 1: Won 8-4 vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
- April 3: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)
Next week:
- April 6: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
- April 8: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)
- April 9: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
- April 11: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 1595 (▲19) 2 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1569 (▼9) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1564 (▼13) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1550 5 New York Islanders (▲1) 1545 (▼2) 6 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 1544 (▼15) 7 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 1543 (▼4) 8 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1542 (▲8) 9 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1541 (▲12) 10 Boston Bruins (▼2) 1540 (▼3) 11 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1539 (▼2) 12 Toronto Maple Leafs 1538 (▲16) 13 Winnipeg Jets 1518 (▼1) 14 Montreal Canadiens 1510 (▲3) 15 New York Rangers 1509 (▲4) 16 Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 1497 (▲1) 17 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1495 (▼9) 18 Dallas Stars (▲2) 1494 (▲13) 19 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1491 (▼4) 20 San Jose Sharks (▲7) 1481 (▲27) 21 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 1478 (▼10) 22 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1470 (▼4) 23 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1468 (▼12) 24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4) 1462 (▼19) 24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1462 26 Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) 1459 (▼5) 27 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1456 (▼4) 28 Ottawa Senators 1432 (▲4) 29 Detroit Red Wings 1429 (▲5) 30 Anaheim Ducks 1406 (▼10) 31 Buffalo Sabres 1397 (▲15)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 39% (▼15) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 31% (▼4) 3 Florida Panthers 30% (▲19) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 53% (▼6) 2 New York Islanders 24% (▲2) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 15% (▲5) 4 Boston Bruins 8% (▼1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 65% (▲32) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 21% (▼29) 3 Minnesota Wild 14% (▼3) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 67% (▲22) 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 13% (▼6) 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 13% (▼12) 4 Montreal Canadiens 8% (▼3) 5 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 4 Nashville Predators 48% (▲3) 5 Dallas Stars (▲1) 28% (▲8) 6 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 20% (▼9) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets 3% (▼4) 8 Detroit Red Wings <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 99% 2 New York Islanders 96% (▲1) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 95% (▲5) 4 Boston Bruins 84% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 13% (▲3) 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 13% (▼8) 7 New Jersey Devils 1% (▼1) 8 Buffalo Sabres <1%
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) >99% (▲1) 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 99% (▲2) 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 99% (▼1) 4 Arizona Coyotes 46% (▲10) 5 San Jose Sharks (▲2) 25% (▲19) 6 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 18% (▼14) 7 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 13% (▼17) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1%
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs >99% (▲2) 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 98% (▲4) 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 98% (▲1) 4 Montreal Canadiens 92% (▲9) 5 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 7% 6 Calgary Flames (▼1) 5% (▼15) 7 Ottawa Senators <1% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲4) 31% (▲22) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 15% (▼13) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 12% (▼5) 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3) 10% (▲7) 4 (tie) Washington Capitals 10% (▼5) 6 Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 7% (▼10) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 6% (▲4) 8 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 4% 9 New York Islanders (▼2) 3% 10 (tie) Boston Bruins 1% 10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 16% (▲5) 2 Washington Capitals (▼1) 10% (▼2) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 9% (▼3) 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 6% (▼1) 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 6% 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲5) 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 6% 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 6% 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5) 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 6% (▼2) 11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 5% 11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 5% (▲1) 13 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 4% 14 Montreal Canadiens 3% 15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 1% 15 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 15 (tie) New York Rangers 1% 15 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 1% 15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲8) 1% (▲1) 21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼6) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) <1%