Month: April 2021

The NHL season is starting to wind down, and we’re starting to see teams clinching playoff spots, or be eliminated from playoff contention.  Last week, Buffalo was the only team without a chance of making the playoffs, but now Columbus and New Jersey have also been added to that list.  And, this week we’ve got the first three teams to clinch playoff spots: Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, the teams currently ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and they are all in the West Division!

Colorado had a layoff for part of the last two weeks after three players entered the COVID protocol, but they are back in action now.  Since then, they’ve played twice, both times against St. Louis, and they split those games.  As a result, they dropped 5 rating points from last week, but still have a sizable lead in the ratings, and are still the only team rated above 1600 points.  They are in second place in the division, 4 points behind Vegas but with 2 games in hand.  We’re giving them a 48% chance of winning the division, compared to Vegas’ 46% chance (and Minnesota’s 6%).  Winning the division could be key to making it out of the division in the playoffs, as the top team plays the fourth team, and right now Arizona is in that last playoff spot but are ranked 18th in the league!

Vegas went 3-0-0 this week and stayed 2nd in our rankings, gaining 6 rating points.  They currently have a 9 game winning streak!  One of their wins this week was a shootout victory over 27th-ranked San Jose, and they had two regulation wins, one against San Jose and one against 31st-ranked Anaheim.  A key game coming up this week is against Colorado on Wednesday night; that one should be quite interesting and may be key to whether Colorado can catch Vegas for first place in the division.

Minnesota had a big week, going 4-0-0, gaining 24 rating points to move into 3rd spot.  They beat Arizona twice, and 24th-ranked Los Angeles and 27th-ranked San Jose once each.  They don’t play either of the top two teams this week, instead having 3 games in a row against 18th-ranked St. Louis.

Carolina moved into the top 5, placing 4th after going 2-0-2 this week.  They split a pair with Tampa Bay, with a regulation win and an overtime loss, then split another pair with Florida, again with a regulation win and an overtime loss.

Pittsburgh continued their climb, moving into the 5th spot in our rankings.  They went 4-0-0, but three of their wins were against 29th-ranked New Jersey.  Their other win was over 7th-ranked Boston.  They have a tough week coming up, with another game against Boston, followed by two against 6th-ranked Washington.

The race for the playoffs looks pretty interesting in three of the divisions.  In the East Division, we think things are pretty much wrapped up, with Pittsburgh, Washington, New York Islanders, and Boston all pretty much assured of a playoff spot, although we are giving the New York Rangers an 8% chance of squeaking in.  In the other three divisions, though, although 3 spots are pretty much solidified, the battle for the last spot is interesting.  In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are pretty much assured a spot, but Nashville (57%) and Dallas (39%) are fighting for that last spot, and even Chicago (5%) has a bit of a chance.  In the West, St. Louis (52%), Arizona (40%), and Los Angeles (7%) have a shot.  And in the Northern Division, we think that Edmonton, Toronto, and Winnipeg all have spots wrapped up, with Montreal (65%), Vancouver (21%) and Calgary (15%) all having reasonable chances at the last spot.

I am concerned a bit about the accuracy of our ratings.  With teams not playing against teams outside of their division, it is possible that Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota are just so much better than the other teams in their division that they have higher ratings than they normally would.  And, we won’t really know until the semi-finals of the playoffs, as that will be the first time they play a team from outside their division.  But, even then, anything can happen in the playoffs, as Tampa Bay found out a couple seasons ago, when they were by far the top-ranked team, but got swept in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1609, ▼5)

Record: 31-10-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▼17)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼3)

Last week: 1-1-0

• April 22: Won 4-2 @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• April 24: Lost 5-3 @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)

Next week:

• April 26: @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• April 28: @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1583)
• April 30: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
• May 1: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)

2. Vegas Golden Knights (1583, ▲6)

Record: 34-11-2, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 39% (▲12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 19: Won in SO 3-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
• April 21: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
• April 24: Won 5-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• April 28: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1609)
• April 30: @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
• May 1: @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)

3. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1582, ▲24)

Record: 31-13-3, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 19: Won 5-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
• April 21: Won 4-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
• April 23: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1449)
• April 24: Won 6-3 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)

Next week:

• April 28: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• April 29: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• May 1: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)

4. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1571, ▲17)

Record: 31-10-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-2

• April 19: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1542)
• April 20: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1542)
• April 22: Won 4-2 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1534)
• April 24: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1534)

Next week:

• April 26: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1508)
• April 27: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1508)
• April 29: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1441)
• May 1: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (28th, 1427)

5. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1569, ▲19)

Record: 32-14-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 20: Won 7-6 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
• April 22: Won 5-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
• April 24: Won 4-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
• April 25: Won 1-0 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1550)

Next week:

• April 27: vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1550)
• April 29: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1568)
• May 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1568)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1609 (▼5)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          1583 (▲6)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1582 (▲24)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1571 (▲17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1569 (▲19)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1568 (▲8)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1550 (▼6)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1545 (▼5)
 9       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1543 (▲9)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1542 (▼7)
11       New York Rangers (▼1)         1536 (▼5)
12       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1534 (▲2)
13       New York Islanders (▲1)       1526 (▼1)
14       Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            1520 (▼17)
15       Dallas Stars                  1508 (▼6)
16       Nashville Predators           1500 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1481 (▲1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1479 (▼5)
18 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1479 (▲5)
20       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1475 (▲5)
21       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       1474 (▼9)
22       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1468 (▲5)
23       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1454 (▼14)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1449 (▼8)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        1441 (▲6)
26       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1436 (▲12)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1434 (▼6)
28       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1427 (▼12)
29       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1421 (▼10)
30       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1418 (▼6)
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1405 (▼11)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           75% (▲20)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▼12)
 3       Florida Panthers              10% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 8 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       —
 8 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    —
 8 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        —

East Division

 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      46% (▲22)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           46% (▲6)
 3       New York Islanders            5% (▼15)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3% (▼13)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            48% (▼17)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          46% (▲13)
 3       Minnesota Wild                6% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4)            —
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           85% (▲26)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          11% (▼7)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4% (▼19)
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           —
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators (▲1)      57% (▲19)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             39% (▼1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            5% (▼17)
 7       Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    —

East Division

 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      >99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           >99% (▲2)
 3       New York Islanders            98% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 94% (▲3)
 5       New York Rangers              8% (▼12)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          52% (▲14)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          40% (▼7)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             7% (▼5)
 7       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 >99%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            65% (▼12)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▲8)
 6       Calgary Flames                15% (▲5)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            41% (▼17)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          39% (▲12)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           15% (▲5)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           4% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▼3)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          11% (▲1)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▲2)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           9% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      8% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6%
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5)      5% (▼2)
11       Florida Panthers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            3% (▼2)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4)         <1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           —
29 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼10)   —
29 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼10)       —

 

It’s been an interesting week at both the top and the bottom of the rankings.  Colorado has retained top spot in the rankings, but haven’t played since April 14th, as some of their players have entered the COVID protocol.  They’ve had three games postponed, and they expect to play their next game on April 22nd.  There’s lots of competition for the top 5 rankings, as the third- through ninth-ranked teams are only 11 rating points apart!  Meanwhile, at the bottom end, Buffalo has managed to crawl out of last place in our rankings, all the way up to 29th(!), but are the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention.

Colorado is the top team in our rankings, for the third week in a row.  They went 2-0-0, with wins against 17th-ranked Arizona and 20th-ranked St. Louis before entering the COVID protocol.  They gained 10 rating points, and extended their lead in the ratings.  But, it will be interesting to see if their layoff helps or hurts them.  They have two games this week against St. Louis (a third game against them is postponed), so we’ll want to keep an eye on that.

Vegas had a big week, going 4-0-0 and jumping from 6th to 2nd place in our rankings.  They also picked up 23 rating points!  Although all four of their games were wins in regulation time, they were against 24th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  And they’ve got an easy week coming up again, with two games against 25th-ranked San Jose and one more against Anaheim.  They’re in a tough division, with 3 teams in our top 5 (Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota), so we’ll see how they do when they play better teams.

Washington retained 3rd spot in our rankings, despite going 2-2-0 this week.  They split a pair with 19th-ranked Philadelphia, lost to lowly Buffalo, and closed off the week with a loss to 5th-ranked Boston.  They lost 6 rating points, but still stayed 3rd in the rankings.

Minnesota jumped 4 spots to take 4th place in our rankings.  They went 3-0-0, and picked up 15 rating points.  They beat 17th-ranked Arizona, then beat 25th-ranked San Jose twice.  They’ve got two more games coming up against Arizona, then single games against Los Angeles and San Jose.  It’s interesting that the top 3 West Division teams don’t play each other at all this week!

Rounding out the top 5 is Boston.  They went 4-0-0, with a shootout win against Buffalo, followed by two wins against the 14th-ranked Islanders and one against 3rd-ranked Washington.  They jumped 6 spots in our rankings, and hope to improve further with three straight games against Buffalo, followed by a game against 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.

Other big positive movers this week were the New York Rangers and Buffalo.  The Rangers went 4-0-0 and gained 23 rating points to move to 10th in the rankings.  They saw their chance of making the playoffs improve from 14% to 20%, but it may be too late for them.  Buffalo went 2-1-1 and gained 18 rating points, with a shootout loss to Boston, a win against Washington, and a split with Pittsburgh.  However, as mentioned previously, they have been eliminated from playoff contention.

There were also some big negative movers.  San Jose lost 29 rating points, going 0-4-0, with two losses to last-ranked Anaheim and two losses to 4th-ranked Minnesota.  New Jersey lost 23 rating points, going 0-4-0, with all four games coming against the Rangers.  And Toronto, despite being the most likely team to win the North Division (59%), lost 21 rating points after going 0-2-2.  They are in first place in the North Division standings, but are currently only the third-best team in that division, behind 7th-ranked Edmonton and 11th-ranked Winnipeg.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1614, ▲10)

Record: 30-9-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 58% (▲20)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 20% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

• April 12: Won 4-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 14: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
• April 16: Postponed vs. Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 18: Postponed vs. Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)

Next week:

• April 20: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
• April 22: @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
• April 24: @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)

2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1577, ▲23)

Record: 31-11-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 27% (▲18)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 12: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 14: Won 6-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 16: Won 4-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)
• April 18: Won 5-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)

Next week:

• April 19: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
• April 21: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
• April 24: @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)

3. Washington Capitals (1560, ▼6)

Record: 29-13-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 13: Won 6-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (19th, 1480)
• April 15: Lost 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 17: Won 6-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (19th, 1480)
• April 18: Lost 6-3 @ Boston Bruins (5th, 1556)

Next week:

• April 22: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
• April 24: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1527)

4. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1558, ▲15)

Record: 27-13-3, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 14: Won 5-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 16: Won 3-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
• April 17: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)

Next week:

• April 19: @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 21: @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 23: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 24: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)

5. Boston Bruins ▲6 (1556, ▲17)

Record: 25-12-6, 4th in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 13: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 15: Won 4-1 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
• April 16: Won 3-0 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
• April 18: Won 6-3 vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1560)

Next week:

• April 20: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 22: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 23: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 25: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1550)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1614 (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     1577 (▲23)
 3       Washington Capitals           1560 (▼6)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1558 (▲15)
 5       Boston Bruins (▲6)            1556 (▲17)
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1554 (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1550 (▲8)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1550 (▼6)
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼7)      1549 (▼19)
10       New York Rangers (▲4)         1541 (▲23)
11       Winnipeg Jets                 1537 (▼2)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      1534 (▼21)
13       Florida Panthers              1532 (▲11)
14       New York Islanders (▼4)       1527 (▼13)
15       Dallas Stars                  1514 (▲11)
16       Nashville Predators           1486 (▼4)
17       Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1484 (▼2)
18       Montreal Canadiens            1483 (▼5)
19       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1480 (▼10)
20       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1474 (▼13)
21       Calgary Flames (▲3)           1470 (▲6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1468 (▲2)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1463 (▲1)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1457 (▼13)
25       San Jose Sharks (▼3)          1440 (▼29)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1439 (▼12)
27       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1435 (▲10)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1431 (▼23)
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1424 (▲18)
29 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1424 (▲13)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1416 (▲9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           55% (▲9)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      26% (▼20)
 3       Florida Panthers              18% (▲11)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           40% (▼3)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      24% (▼2)
 3       New York Islanders (▼1)       20% (▼7)
 4       Boston Bruins                 16% (▲12)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            65% (▼8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          33% (▲9)
 3       Minnesota Wild                2% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼4)            —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           59% (▼19)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 23% (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               18% (▲14)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼3)          —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             40% (▲13)
 5       Nashville Predators (▼1)      38% (▼15)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            22% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           98% (▼1)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      97% (▼2)
 3       New York Islanders (▼2)       94% (▼5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲7)
 5       New York Rangers              20% (▲6)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1% (▼6)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          >99%
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          47% (▲17)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          38% (▼5)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        12%
 7       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          3% (▼12)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 >99%
 3       Edmonton Oilers               99%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            77% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             13% (▲4)
 6       Calgary Flames                10% (▲2)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            58% (▲20)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     27% (▲18)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      10% (▼5)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           2% (▼12)
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         1%
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           1% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      1% (▼14)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            20% (▲3)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     10% (▲3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      8%
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      7% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲6)            6% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6% (▼1)
10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6)      5% (▼3)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            5%
13       New York Islanders (▼5)       3% (▼2)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1%
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼1)
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
19 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
31       Buffalo Sabres (▼11)          —

 

It’s been another interesting week in the NHL.  Lots of exciting games, some weak teams beating some better teams, and no games from Vancouver due to COVID.  Because of Vancouver’s COVID troubles, the season has been extended again, now to May 16th, with the Canucks playing the last 3 games on the schedule.

Colorado remains in top spot in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They are the first team this year to rise above the 1600 rating mark, gaining 9 points to 1604.  They went 3-1-0, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Minnesota, then beating 30th-ranked Anaheim twice.  They are also the favourite to win the President’s Trophy, which we’re giving them a 38% chance of doing, and the Stanley Cup, at 17%.  With games next week against St. Louis, Arizona, and Los Angeles (19th, 20th, and 21st!), we expect to see them improve their rating even higher.

Tampa Bay and Washington exchanged spots this week, with Tampa Bay now at number 2 and Washington at 3.  Tampa Bay started the week with a loss to 27th-ranked Columbus, but turned around 2 nights later to beat them, then ended the week with a shutout win over 16th-ranked Nashville.  Washington didn’t have such a good week, going 2-2-0, losing to the Islanders (10th) and Boston (11th), squeaking by the league-worst Sabres 4-3, and finishing the week with a strong 8-1 drubbing of Boston.

Pittsburgh has come out of nowhere to move into the top 5 for the first time this season.  They moved up 4 ranking spots last week, and now sit in 4th.  They had a 3-1-0 record last week, splitting a pair with the 14th-ranked Rangers, then beating 26th-ranked New Jersey twice.  They look to have an easy week next week, playing fading 16th-ranked Philadelphia once and lowly Buffalo twice.

Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who return to the top 5 with a big jump from 12th last week.  They went 3-0-0, beating Calgary, Montreal, and Ottawa.  They have been looking strong in the games I’ve watched.

The biggest jump in ratings this week was 11th-ranked Winnipeg, picking up 21 rating points with a win against Ottawa and two against Montreal.  They start next week with two games against 29th-ranked Ottawa, but then face a tough test with games against Toronto and 9th-ranked Edmonton.

The biggest drop in the ratings came from Montreal, losing 22 rating points and dropping to 18th in the rankings.  However, we do still give them an 84% chance of making the playoffs!  They went 1-3-0 this week, beating Edmonton in overtime, but then losing to Toronto once and Winnipeg twice.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1604, ▲9)

Record: 28-9-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 5: Won 5-4 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• April 7: Lost 8-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• April 9: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)
• April 11: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)

Next week:

• April 12: vs. Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1486)
• April 14: @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1487)
• April 16: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)
• April 18: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1568, ▲4)

Record: 28-11-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 6: Lost 4-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
• April 8: Won 6-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
• April 10: Won 3-0 @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)

Next week:

• April 13: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)
• April 15: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)
• April 17: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)

3. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1566, ▼3)

Record: 27-11-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 6: Lost 1-0 @ New York Islanders (10th, 1540)
• April 8: Lost 4-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
• April 9: Won 4-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 11: Won 8-1 @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)

Next week:

• April 13: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 15: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 17: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 18: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲4 (1556, ▲14)

Record: 27-13-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 6: Lost 8-4 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
• April 8: Won 5-2 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
• April 9: Won 6-4 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)
• April 11: Won 5-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)

Next week:

• April 15: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 17: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 18: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲7 (1555, ▲17)

Record: 28-10-3, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 5: Won 5-3 @ Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 7: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
• April 10: Won 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (29th, 1411)

Next week:

• April 12: @ Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
• April 13: vs. Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 15: vs. Winnipeg Jets (11th, 1539)
• April 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1462)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1604 (▲9)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1568 (▲4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1566 (▼3)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1556 (▲14)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲7)      1555 (▲17)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights          1554 (▲10)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes           1553 (▲10)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼4)           1543 (▼7)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1542 (▲3)
10       New York Islanders (▼5)       1540 (▼5)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1539 (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1539 (▲21)
13       Florida Panthers (▼4)         1521 (▼20)
14       New York Rangers (▲1)         1518 (▲9)
15       Dallas Stars (▲3)             1503 (▲9)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1490 (▼1)
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1490 (▼5)
18       Montreal Canadiens (▼4)       1488 (▼22)
19       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1487 (▲9)
20       Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          1486 (▼11)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1470 (▲2)
22       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1469 (▼12)
23       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1466 (▲7)
24       Calgary Flames                1464 (▲2)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1462
26       New Jersey Devils (▼4)        1454 (▼16)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets         1451 (▼5)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1425 (▼4)
29       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1411 (▼21)
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1407 (▲1)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1406 (▲9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      46% (▲15)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           46% (▲7)
 3       Florida Panthers              7% (▼23)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           43% (▼10)
 2       New York Islanders            27% (▲3)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           26% (▲11)
 4       Boston Bruins                 4% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            73% (▲8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          24% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                3% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           78% (▲11)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 17% (▲4)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          4% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators           53% (▲5)
 5       Dallas Stars                  27% (▼1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            20%
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         1% (▼2)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      99% (▲4)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 84%
 5       New York Rangers              14% (▲1)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      6% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     >99% (▲1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           99%
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          43% (▲25)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          30% (▼16)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          15% (▼10)
 7       Los Angeles Kings             12% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            >99% (▲2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          99% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            84% (▼8)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             9% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames                8% (▲3)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            38% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      15% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      15% (▲9)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      14% (▼1)
 5       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     9% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼2)      4% (▼6)
 7       New York Islanders (▲2)       2% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4)         1% (▼9)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▲1)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     7% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            5% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼8)         4% (▼2)
14       Montreal Canadiens            2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers              1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲6)          1% (▲1)
20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼5)          <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

 

We have a new team at the top of the rankings this week.  Colorado has taken over top spot from Washington, rising 19 rating points to 1595.  They have quite the lead over Washington now, as the Capitals dropped 9 points down to 1569.  Tampa Bay and Minnesota remain in the top 5, while Vegas has dropped to sixth, and have been replaced in the top 5 by the New York Islanders.

Colorado had a big week, going 4-0-0.  They beat 30th-ranked Anaheim, 16th-ranked Arizona (9-3!), and 21st-ranked St. Louis twice.

Washington had an average week, going 2-2-0.  They started the week with two losses in New York, first to the 15th-ranked Rangers, then to the 5th-ranked Islanders, giving up 8 goals.  They finished the week with two wins over New Jersey, the first one in overtime.

Tampa Bay had a very easy schedule, but only managed a 2-2-0 record.  They split a pair with 27th-ranked Columbus, then also split a pair with 29th-ranked Detroit.

Minnesota went 2-1-1.  They started the week losing twice to 20th-ranked San Jose, once in a shootout.  But then, they turned it around by beating 6th-ranked Vegas twice, with one of those wins also coming in a shootout.

Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Islanders, who went 2-1-0, with a loss to 8th-ranked Pittsburgh, a win against Washington, and a shootout win against 17th-ranked Philadelphia.

San Jose had the best week this week, picking up 27 rating points and moving up from 27th to 20th place in the rankings.  They went 4-0-0, beating 4th-ranked Minnesota twice, with one of those wins coming in a shootout, then beating 23rd-ranked Los Angeles twice.

The playoff teams seem to be firming up.  Looking at the chances of making the playoffs (or not), if a team has greater than a 99% chance, I consider them a sure thing, as they’ve got less than a 1 in 100 chance of not making the playoffs.  If a team has a greater than 90% chance, I consider it pretty likely, although there is still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making the playoffs.  And if a team has less than a 1% chance, I don’t see much chance that they can turn it around and make the playoffs, although there is still a slim chance.  Let’s look at each of the divisions.

In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are all considered shoe-ins.  There are still 3 other teams that have a reasonable chance of grabbing the last playoff spot, with Nashville most likely at 48%, Dallas at 28%, and Chicago at 9%.  And it looks like a three-way race for the top spot, with Tampa Bay favoured at 39%, but Carolina (31%) and Florida (30%) have almost as good a shot at it.

In the East Division, nobody is a sure thing, although Washington (99%), New York Islanders (96%), and Pittsburgh (95%) are pretty likely.  Boston is expected to get the fourth spot with an 84% chance, but the Rangers and Philadelphia (both at 13%) can’t be counted out yet.  Washington has a 53% chance of winning the division.

In the West Division, Colorado (>99%), Minnesota (99%), and Vegas (also 99%) look to take the top 3 spots.  But it’s close after that.  Arizona has a 46% chance of making the playoffs, followed by San Jose at 25%, St. Louis at 18%, and Los Angeles at 13%.  Only Anaheim is being counted out in that division.

In the North Division, it looks like the playoff teams have been mostly decided.  Toronto is a sure thing, whereas Edmonton (98%), Winnipeg (also 98%), and Montreal (92%) are pretty sure of making the playoffs.  Having an outside shot are still Vancouver at 7% and Calgary at 5%.  Vancouver’s got no chance.  And we’re giving Toronto a 67% chance of winning the division.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche ▲2 (1595, ▲19)

Record: 25-8-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▲22)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 29: Won 5-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
• March 31: Won 9-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1497)
• April 2: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
• April 3: Won 2-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)

Next week:

• April 5: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
• April 7: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
• April 9: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
• April 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)

2. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1569, ▼9)

Record: 25-9-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Lost 5-2 @ New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
• April 1: Lost 8-4 @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
• April 2: Won in OT 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)
• April 4: Won 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)

Next week:

• April 6: @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
• April 8: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)
• April 9: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1397)
• April 11: @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1564, ▼13)

Record: 26-10-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▼13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Lost 3-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 1: Won 3-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 3: Won 2-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)
• April 4: Lost 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)

Next week:

• April 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 8: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 10: @ Nashville Predators (19th, 1491)

4. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1550)

Record: 23-11-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 29: Lost in SO 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
• March 31: Lost 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
• April 1: Won in SO 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)
• April 3: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)

Next week:

• April 5: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
• April 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
• April 9: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
• April 10: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)

5. New York Islanders ▲1 (1545, ▼2)

Record: 24-10-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 29: Lost 2-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1542)
• April 1: Won 8-4 vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
• April 3: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)

Next week:

• April 6: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
• April 8: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)
• April 9: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
• April 11: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       1595 (▲19)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1569 (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1564 (▼13)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1550
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       1545 (▼2)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1544 (▼15)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1543 (▼4)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1542 (▲8)
 9       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1541 (▲12)
10       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1540 (▼3)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1539 (▼2)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs           1538 (▲16)
13       Winnipeg Jets                 1518 (▼1)
14       Montreal Canadiens            1510 (▲3)
15       New York Rangers              1509 (▲4)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1497 (▲1)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1495 (▼9)
18       Dallas Stars (▲2)             1494 (▲13)
19       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1491 (▼4)
20       San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1481 (▲27)
21       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1478 (▼10)
22       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▼4)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1468 (▼12)
24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           1462 (▼19)
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1462
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1459 (▼5)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1456 (▼4)
28       Ottawa Senators               1432 (▲4)
29       Detroit Red Wings             1429 (▲5)
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1406 (▼10)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1397 (▲15)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           39% (▼15)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           31% (▼4)
 3       Florida Panthers              30% (▲19)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           53% (▼6)
 2       New York Islanders            24% (▲2)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           15% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 8% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       65% (▲32)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     21% (▼29)
 3       Minnesota Wild                14% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           67% (▲22)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▼6)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 13% (▼12)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            8% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators           48% (▲3)
 5       Dallas Stars (▲1)             28% (▲8)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       20% (▼9)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         3% (▼4)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           99%
 2       New York Islanders            96% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           95% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 84% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         13% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           13% (▼8)
 7       New Jersey Devils             1% (▼1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           99% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     99% (▼1)
 4       Arizona Coyotes               46% (▲10)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲2)          25% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          18% (▼14)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        13% (▼17)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           >99% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          98% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 98% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            92% (▲9)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        7%
 6       Calgary Flames (▼1)           5% (▼15)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       31% (▲22)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      15% (▼13)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      12% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         10% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           10% (▼5)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     7% (▼10)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      6% (▲4)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           4%
 9       New York Islanders (▼2)       3%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1%
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       16% (▲5)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      10% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      9% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          6%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲5)         6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       6%
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          6% (▼2)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲1)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4%
14       Montreal Canadiens            3%
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers              1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1%
15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲8)          1% (▲1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
21 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼6)           <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        <1%