Once again this week, Tampa Bay and Boston remain the top two teams in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, although they’ve flipped places again this week, with Tampa Bay now on top. Tampa Bay went 3-1-0, and Boston went 2-1-0, although one of Boston’s wins was in overtime against the 23rd ranked Rangers.
Vegas went 3-1-0 to move back into the top 5, at number 3. Toronto remained the 4th ranked team, going 2-1-0, but with three games against 30th ranked Ottawa next week, I expect to see their rating move up a bit. Rounding out the top 5, tied in 5th, are Colorado, who lost their only game last week (two games were postponed), and Philadelphia, who had all four of their games postponed.
Big movers last week include Edmonton (3-0-0), who gained 22 rating points and moved up 9 spots to 11th, the Islanders (2-0-1), who gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 9th, and Columbus (2-0-1), who also gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 10th.
On the downside, Nashville had the worst week, going 1-3-0 with their only win coming against the worst-ranked Detroit, but they did play top-ranked Tampa Bay twice, so maybe their week wasn’t as bad as it looked. Other big droppers were the Rangers (0-2-1, with one game postponed), who lost 14 rating points and dropped 4 spots to 23rd, and San Jose (1-2-0), who lost 13 rating points and dropped 1 spot to 29th.
Finally, we’re giving Tampa Bay the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup, where our simulations show them having an 11% chance of winning it all, closely followed by Boston at 9%. Perhaps most surprisingly, Toronto, who haven’t won a cup since 1967, have an 8% chance, tied with Vegas.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1574, ▲11)
Record: 10-2-1, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 94% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)
Last week: 3-1-0
- February 8: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
- February 9: Won 6-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
- February 11: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
- February 13: Won 6-1 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
Next week:
- February 15: vs. Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
- February 18: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)
- February 20: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)
2. Boston Bruins ▼1 (1565, ▼2)
Record: 10-2-2, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 92% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 16%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 10: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
- February 12: Won 1-0 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
- February 13: Lost 4-2 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1518)
Next week:
- February 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
- February 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
- February 21: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5th, 1545)
3. Vegas Golden Knights ▲3 (1552, ▲9)
Record: 10-2-1, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 90% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- February 9: Won 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
- February 11: Lost 1-0 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
- February 13: Won 3-1 @ San Jose Sharks (29th, 1450)
- February 14: Won 1-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)
Next week:
- February 16: vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)
- February 20: @ Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1548, ▲3)
Record: 11-3-1, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 95% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 8: Won 3-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1466)
- February 10: Won 4-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)
- February 13: Lost 2-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)
Next week:
- February 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
- February 17: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
- February 18: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
- February 20: @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)
5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼2 (1545, ▼7)
Record: 7-4-1, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 77% (▼5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)
Last week: 0-1-0
- February 9: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
- February 11: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
- February 14: Lost 1-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)
Next week:
- February 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)
- February 20: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)
5 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545)
Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 0-0-0
- February 9: Postponed @ Washington Capitals (13th, 1509)
- February 11: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
- February 13: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
- February 14: Postponed @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
Next week:
- February 18: vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
- February 21: @ Boston Bruins (2nd, 1565)
Overall Ratings
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1574 (▲11) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 1565 (▼2) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 1552 (▲9) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs 1548 (▲3) 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 1545 (▼7) 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1545 7 St. Louis Blues 1537 (▲7) 8 Carolina Hurricanes 1520 (▲2) 9 New York Islanders (▲5) 1518 (▲15) 10 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5) 1516 (▲15) 11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9) 1514 (▲22) 11 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 1514 (▲6) 13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 1509 (▼6) 13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4) 1509 (▼7) 15 Dallas Stars (▼5) 1505 (▼10) 16 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1504 (▲7) 17 Winnipeg Jets (▼5) 1501 (▼12) 18 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1497 19 Arizona Coyotes (▼3) 1493 (▼7) 20 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 1490 (▲8) 21 Minnesota Wild 1489 22 Chicago Blackhawks 1481 (▼7) 23 New York Rangers (▼4) 1480 (▼14) 24 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1479 (▲5) 25 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1470 (▲6) 26 Vancouver Canucks 1466 (▼4) 27 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1461 28 Nashville Predators (▼4) 1460 (▼17) 29 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1450 (▼13) 30 Ottawa Senators 1415 (▼8) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1405
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 52% (▲9) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 19% 3 Florida Panthers 14% (▼1) 4 Dallas Stars 6% (▼7) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 5% (▲1) 6 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 3% (▼1) 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% (▼2)
East Division
1 Boston Bruins 49% (▲1) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 22% 3 New York Islanders (▲2) 9% (▲4) 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils 6% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 6% (▼4) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 5% (▲2) 7 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 2% 8 New York Rangers (▼2) 1% (▼3)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 44% (▲8) 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 21% (▼8) 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 21% (▲4) 4 Minnesota Wild 5% (▼1) 5 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 3% (▼3) 6 Anaheim Ducks 2% (▼1) 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1% 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 51% (▲6) 2 Montreal Canadiens 18% (▼7) 3 Winnipeg Jets 11% (▼7) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 10% (▲6) 5 Calgary Flames (▼1) 9% (▲2) 6 Vancouver Canucks 1% 7 Ottawa Senators <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 94% (▲6) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 77% (▲5) 3 Florida Panthers 70% (▲5) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 54% (▲15) 5 Dallas Stars (▼1) 49% (▼13) 6 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 39% 7 Nashville Predators 14% (▼15) 8 Detroit Red Wings 2% (▼2)
East Division
1 Boston Bruins 92% (▲2) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 79% 3 New York Islanders (▲1) 56% (▲13) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 48% (▼9) 5 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 43% 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 42% (▲10) 7 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 21% (▼1) 8 New York Rangers (▼2) 19% (▼15)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 90% (▲6) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 79% (▲9) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 77% (▼5) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 42% (▼1) 5 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 40% (▼5) 6 Anaheim Ducks 32% (▲2) 7 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 22% (▲3) 8 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 17% (▼10)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 95% (▲2) 2 Montreal Canadiens 80% (▼5) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 70% (▲21) 4 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 67% (▼11) 5 Calgary Flames (▼1) 64% (▲5) 6 Vancouver Canucks 21% (▼8) 7 Ottawa Senators 3% (▼4)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 23% (▲7) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 16% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 13% 4 Vegas Golden Knights 12% (▲2) 5 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 6% 6 Philadelphia Flyers 5% (▼1) 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 4% (▼3) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 4% 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3) 4% (▲1) 10 Montreal Canadiens (▼4) 3% (▼3) 11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3) 1% 11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲9) 1% (▲1) 11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 1% (▼2) 11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9) 1% (▲1) 11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 1% 11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3) 1% 11 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1% 11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲9) 1% (▲1) 11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 1% (▼1) 11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 11% (▲2) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 9% 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▲1) 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 8% (▲1) 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 6% (▼1) 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 6% 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) 6% (▲1) 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 4% 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲6) 4% (▲2) 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4) 4% (▲1) 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 4% 12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4) 3% (▼1) 12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Washington Capitals 3% 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4) 3% (▼1) 18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5) 2% (▲1) 22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1% 22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1% 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼8) 1% (▼1) 22 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1% 22 (tie) New York Rangers (▼8) 1% (▼1) 22 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% 22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1% 29 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 29 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 29 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6) <1% (▼1)